Update aug 24, 2017
Update jun 2, 2017
My definite final analyses of the Chevaline massacre. The girl did it.
#Chevaline LR babysitting. LR 15h32 call ‘Where is CS?’. CS was at Martinet, killing SM. LR realizes CS=X, covers 4 CS. WBM saw CS on motor.
The notorius Lyon motorbiker is not X. I think there is another motorbiker. The one which the english biker saw coming down just before he arrived at the murder scene. This motorbiker was not our man from Lyon, but it was the girl.
Remember that there was a motorbiker seen on Col de Cherel? Ok, the said timing doesn’t fit. But maybe our farmer at the Col de Cherel got the times mixed up.
I think that motorbiker was the girl, coming from Grignon, going over Col de Cherel to Combe d’Ire/Martinet, counter clock wise so she would bump into Mollier.
Remember also that the girl, by her own admision, was not at home all day. She said ‘I went home so that Mollier could go biking’. In other words, the girl was outside. At Grignon maybe?
Of course, that is her story. That she came home so that Mollier could go biking. And that she stayed home with the baby. The baby becoming her rock solid alibi. Btw, was there any witness to this? That she came home at said time?
Now … remember the ex-wife’s 15h32 phonecall to Mollier. How strange. How utterly macabre that she phoned Mollier at the exact moment he was shot. And her explanation? ‘Oh, just nothing, just about the kids’
I don’t believe it. She phoned alright, but with another reason. She asked Mollier, ‘Where is the girl?’
Why? Why would she ask, ‘Where is the girl?’ … Because the ex-wife was babysitting for Mollier and was waiting for the girl to come back. But the girl was ‘delayed’. Delayed because … she was at Martinet, waiting for Mollier. To kill Mollier.
Of course we know things turned out bad. The al-Hilli’s arrived on the scene and became witnesses of the murder, and therefor had to be shot too. Which the girl did. After she finished off the al-Hilli’s she put some final bullets into Mollier (‘You bastard’).
Then she went home on her motorbike, but was seen by the english biker. Arriving home, the ex-wife must have guessed what had happened or maybe the girl told her. They ‘decided to team up’, very probably with money changing hands from the girl to the ex-wife. What other option did the girl have but to pay off the ex-wife?
Anyway, the ex-wife maintains her 15h32 story ‘About the kids’ and of course hides that she was babysitting. And with that the girl can maintain her rock solid ‘baby alibi’
What’s more to say? How can you crack this?
Maybe the Luger. Who knows. And did the ex-wife have an alibi for 14h-16h?
My previous final analysis. Also good, but not as good as the final one above:)
Update nov 2, 2016
My final analyses of the Chevaline massacre. The ‘Granny’ did it.
I denote all actors with initials. I give my analyses in shorthand style, painting the key things with few words. Figure out the complete picture yourself. I’m not a novelist. I don’t want to write a 120 paged volume on the matter.
The ‘Granny’ (GSM) is the evil genius behind this thing, the ‘disposing of SM’. GSM organized the logistics, X was the friend in deed. Not supposed to be a massacre though. But Zainab and/or SAH disturbed X and SM (SM was already there! X held him at gunpoint) by the riverside. SM used this disturbance to try to escape from X, hence this is why he was shot in the back. Meanwhile SAH, on sensing the weird situation (SM and X) tried to escape, to no avail. The car got stuck and X terminated the SAH family because of being witnesses. SM’s ex, LR is in. She must be. She phoned SM at 15h32 when he already was at Martinet (held at gunpoint by X). LR knows, probably paid off by GSM.
GSM’s motive? SM simply was ‘unwanted’.
This is my final theory based on the facts as I know them. It maximizes the fit of pieces, while minimizing the left-overs (e.g. SAH visitor at the campsite).
PM, the legionnaire, probably is innocent, but his suicide shows how extreme the social pressure is. A force behind that social pressure probably is GSM. She saw in PM the perfect scapegoat. But she didn’t voice this directly though, that would alert the investigators.
More thoughts …
Anyway, Zainab said there was nobody when they arrived (iirc). This would be compatible with X and SM being near the river side, out of view. X wanted to kill-by-fake-accident SM, dump SM in the river, and throw the bike in the river later. If SM’s body would be found, maybe days later, who would think of a murder? Nobody, because nobody but X and the GSM party knew were SM was. Of course, when asked about the matter, GSM and X would state the didn’t know SM was biking around Combe d’Ire. He would be reported missing but nobody would find him until much later. That was the plan. The police would think of an fatal accident … nobody would come up with SM being murdered. Not your average gendarme anyway. The perfect crime.
Good plan, until SAH and Zainab stumbled on the scene going near the river side. SM, using the confusion, tried to escape from X. SM got to the road, then ran away over the parking. X also crawled up to the road, and shot the running SM in the back. SM fell on the ground, exactly in the trajectory of the reversing (reverse-break-reverse pattern) BMW of SAH. The BMW dragged SM to the other side of the parking where finally the BMW got stuck. The rest is history.
So, it was the killer combo GSM-X. And who knows, once a killer, twice a killer? Maybe the GSM-X combo helped the other PM in 2007 by killing off CM. Team GSM-X was a team back in 2007 and again in 2012. Removing CM (danger to PM and thus GSM) and SM (danger to CS and thus GSM). The symmetry 2007=CM<–PM<=GSM=>CS–>SM=2012 is striking.
More thoughts …
The situation was this:
– SM arrived (before SAH) at parking Martinet
– X was already there (prepped for kill-by-fake-accident SM)
– X held SM at gunpoint with the ol’ Luger P06
– X wanted to ‘dump’ SM in the river (fake accident)
– X forces SM to the riverbed (behind barrier)
– Bike is at barrier (probably to be dumped in the river as well)
– SAH arrives
– Nobody to see (but the bike)
– SAH and Zainab get out
– Zainab wanders to side of the parking, near the river
– SAH goes to the barrier/bike
– SAH ‘disturbs’ X and SM
– SM takes the opportunity to try to escape
– SM ‘fights’ X
– SAH sees this (SM and X fighting, Luger P06 and all)
– SAH takes Zainab by the hand and runs to BMW
– SM manages to get to the parking, and tries to run away
– X also climbs up from the river bed to the parking (barrier)
– X, standing near the barrier, shoots SM in the back
– SAH meanwhile tries to escape in BMW (reversing)
– SAH runs over the, now downed, body of SM
– SAH drags SM, and gets stuck on the other side of the parking
– X kills witnessses
Main point is that SM was the target … but not to be shot, because a shot-dead SM would imply a ‘murder’, and this is not what GSM wanted. GSM wanted a ‘fatal accident’. A Luger sufficed to hold SM at gunpoint (explaining away the strange choice of weapon)
Plz do remember that CS, and thus GSM/TS, is/are instrumental in SM being at parking Martinet in the first place! This is fact. TS ‘adviced’ Martinet as a bike destination to SM (fact), and CS came back home early so that SM could go biking (fact). This was all ‘logistics’ planned stuff by GSM. Who knew the situation around Martinet? Answer: TS. GSM made sure X was already at Martinet. X being on foot. All prepped ‘logistics’. It makes sense. And the murder has the simplest of motives. It was a matter of GSM versus SM. The ‘disposing of’ SM.
The simplest explanations are often the best.
More thoughts …
I’m not saying SM was to be ‘drowned’, but more like ‘fallen into the riverbed, head on rock (Schumi) thingy’. If they would find SM, lying in the riverbed, with a head wound, who would think of murder? Nobody, unless there was to be a very paranoid gendarme. This gendarme would have to make the quantum leap ‘Hey this is not an accident but a murder case’ … but why would he do that?
GSM, TS, CS, etc had perfect alibi’s. Unless TS=X, which I think is the case. Then TS does not have an alibi other than the one provided by GSM.
Anyway, the situation took an unexpected and unwanted turn. The ‘massacre’. But GSM was lucky because even with SM shot, most eyes were on SAH. EM declaring, within 2 days that ‘the answer was to be found in the UK’.
Turn back to the kill-by-fake-accident plan. X would have make it to look like an accident. So, I think X wanted to dump the bike in the river next to SM. Of course, with the massacre at hand, X didn’t do that now, because a bike in the riverbed would be near proof (Columbo style) that SM was the target.
And who knows, maybe the bike was already near the riverbed(!) … But once SM escaped from X and was shot down by X and SAH was shot as well, X, to mask the ‘SM=Target’ thingy, had to pull the bike out of the riverbed and dump it on the parking, near the barrier.
This is what EM said, he said ‘It looked like the bike was thrown into a corner’
WBM stated ‘I saw the bike on the side’
The bike was ‘odd’. Yesterday night, I wondered about the pump. The airpump was lying on the ground somewhere. Where did this airpump come from. From SM’s pocket? Or was it attached to the bike?
To continue discussing TCK in a public forum, I suggest CM. Just follow the link … CM public forum on TCK